An upcoming UK government consultation on relaxing electric vehicle (EV) targets could cost consumers up to £3bn annually by 2030, according to Carbon Brief analysis.
The analysis indicates this change could require the UK to import an additional 17 million barrels of oil in 2030, increasing net imports by 8% and adding 2.5% to national emissions that year.
Despite years of strong lobbying from parts of the car industry and significant savings available to EV drivers, media reports suggest that EV targets may be “watered down.”
Currently, battery EVs (BEVs), which run solely on electricity, must make up a growing share of new car sales in the UK. The “zero-emission vehicles” (ZEV) mandate, introduced by the previous Conservative government, sets a target of 33% BEV sales in 2026, rising to 80% by 2030. Carmakers can use “flexibilities” to help meet these targets, effectively reducing the 2026 goal to an estimated 25% of sales.
The new Labour government, led by Prime Minister Andy Burnham, is reportedly considering lowering the 2030 BEV target to just 50% of new car sales, with options for 60% or 70% also under review.
Carbon Brief understands that a consultation on weakening the ZEV mandate is being reviewed by the prime minister’s office before its formal release. If the mandate is reduced to 50% by 2030 and carmakers use more “flexibilities,” there could be up to 3 million fewer BEVs on UK roads by 2030, according to NGO T&E.
Previous Carbon Brief analysis found that BEVs are about £1,100 cheaper to run per year than petrol cars, mainly due to lower fuel costs. Overall, BEVs are more than £1,000 per year cheaper to own than either petrol cars or plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), based on total cost of ownership analysis by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), which includes purchase price, fuel, insurance, and proposed pay-per-mile charges.
In total, Carbon Brief analysis shows that UK drivers could face an extra £3bn in annual ownership costs by 2030 if the ZEV mandate is weakened.
BusinessGreen reports that a weaker ZEV mandate could “put billions of pounds of committed investments at risk,” including investments in the EV charging network and battery supply chains.
Industry group Energy UK states that the mandate is “working in the way it was designed to work” and is the “single biggest driver of emissions reductions” in government climate plans. However, Carbon Brief analysis shows that a weaker ZEV mandate could result in an extra 7.4 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions in 2030, adding 2.5% to national emissions under the UK’s international climate goal for that year. It could also require the UK to import an extra 17 million barrels of oil in 2030, equivalent to 8% of projected net imports.
Energy UK adds that shifting to EVs will help reduce household energy bills for everyone, not only through direct cost savings for EV drivers but also by spreading the costs of upgrading the electricity system across a wider user base.
The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders claims its members are spending “billions…on discounts, finance incentives and marketing support,” and that “natural” EV demand is below the level needed to meet the current ZEV mandate. These claims are disputed.
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